Predictive Discovery: DFS makes a compelling case for Bankan
The DFS on Predictive Discovery’s Bankan gold project in Guinea has recently been released and has confirmed the quality of the project, which seems destined to become one of West Africa’s foremost gold mines. Predictive’s MD ANDREW PARDEY tells ARTHUR TASSELL that the company is on course to launch mine construction in the second quarter of 2026 with commercial production being achieved in Q2-2028.
Located in the Siguiri Basin of north-east Guinea, Bankan has a huge resource of 5.53 Moz of gold and an ore reserve of 2.95 Moz (51.6 Mt at 1.78 g/t). Predictive, which is listed on the ASX, has taken Bankan from discovery to DFS in just over five years, which is exceptionally fast for a greenfield gold project of this size in Africa – or indeed anywhere in the world.
The discovery hole at Bankan was drilled in April 2020 and a maiden resource of 3.6 Moz was declared in September 2021. A highly positive PFS was completed in April 2024 and the DFS, which builds on the PFS, was published in June this year.
As detailed in the DFS, Bankan will have an average life-of-mine (LOM) production of approximately 250 kozpa over 12.2 years from mill feed of 54.5 Mt at 1.86 g/t containing 3.26 Moz of gold. The DFS puts the capital cost at US$463 million, including a US$34 million contingency, pre-production operating costs and indirect costs. The AISC over the LOM is estimated at approximately US$1 057/oz, delivering strong free cash flow.
The project has a post-tax NPV5 of US$1.6 billion and an IRR of 46% at a base case gold price assumption of US$2 400/oz, with payback being achieved in less than two years. These already good figures improve dramatically at higher gold prices, with the post-tax NPV5 increasing to US$2.9 billion, the IRR to 73% and the payback period reducing to just under a year at a gold price of approximately US$3 300/oz.
“This is a big project with phenomenal economics,” says Pardey. “It will be developed into one of the largest gold mines seen in West Africa in a generation and deliver compelling returns for shareholders and stakeholders alike. It is one of the best projects I’ve ever seen. It has exceptional leverage to the gold price with each additional US$100/oz increasing the NPV by approximately US$140 million.”
A geologist by training, Pardey – who is an Australian national – has extensive experience in the African gold mining industry. He worked in Guinea from 1998 through to 2008, holding senior management roles at both the Siguiri and Lefa gold mines. He later moved to the Sukari gold mine in Egypt, serving as its GM and later becoming COO and then CEO (till 2019) of its parent, Centamin (which last year was bought out by AngloGold Ashanti). He is also on the board of Wia Gold, which holds the 2.9 Moz Kokoseb gold project in Namibia.
Guinea a mining hot spot
Pardey makes the point that Guinea, which has an established mining code and fiscal regime, has emerged as a major ‘hot spot’ for mining in recent years. In 2022, mining accounted for over 90% of the country’s exports and approximately 21% of GDP.
“The country has always been known for bauxite and gold mining but it is now also host to the huge US$20 billion plus Simandou iron ore project, which will be shipping ore to export markets by the end of this year,” he says.
“There is also considerable investment in new gold mines. One of our neighbours is the Kouroussa mine, which entered production in 2023, while another is Robex’s Kiniero, which is due to pour its first gold by the end of this year.”
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The two main orebodies at Bankan are NEB, which includes a small extension known as GBE, and BC, which is 3.5 km to the west. NEB will be mined by both underground and open-pit methods while BC will be an open-pit operation. NEB accounts for the bulk of the ore reserve, hosting 2.75 Moz of the total of 2.95 Moz.
BC, with the remaining 200 koz, will only be mined near the end of mine life to defer capital costs. Open-pit operations will deliver a grade of 1.39 g/t and the underground a grade of 3.77 g/t, giving an overall LOM grade of 1.86 g/t. Over the LOM, the underground mine will contribute just over 30% of the gold produced.
“Both the open-pit and underground operations will be straightforward,” says Pardey. The open-pit mining will utilise conventional truck and shovel methods while the underground mining will be a combination of transverse and longitudinal stoping with engineered paste fill. At this stage, our intention is to use contract mining for both the open pits and the underground.
The NEB open pit will be mined in three stages to prioritise access to higher grade ore. The mining fleet will include three 140-tonne excavators (e.g., Cat 6015) loading into around 13 Cat 777-class dump trucks.
Pardey notes that one of the main improvements in the DFS compared to the PFS is a very significant reduction in the strip ratio. “In the PFS, this was 4.6 to 1 but in the DFS this has been reduced to 1.9 to 1,” he says.
“This is a result of additional geotechnical testwork and open pit vs underground studies which have delivered steeper wall angles, a smaller NEB pit and a larger contribution from the underground mine at an increased mining rate.”
Mine development
The execution and production schedule for Bankan envisages a two-year construction period to build the mine. Development of the underground mine will occur during this pre-production period to deliver ore to the processing plant at start-up. This allows higher grade material to be brought forward and ensures a minimum of 25% fresh ore to meet plant requirements.
The underground orebody will be accessed by twin declines from the GBE pit, less than 500 m from NEB. It will be mined and ore stockpiled over the first nine months to allow the portal to be established in fresh rock. Underground development will take 15 months to access the first stope ore, with development ore used for plant commissioning.
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“One of the main advantages of accessing the underground orebody from the GBE pit is that we’re starting in fresh rock rather than from surface,” says Pardey. “This means we avoid geotechnical issues associated with laterite and saprolite. The result is a considerable capex saving.”
Since GBE pit mining occurs in the first nine months and NEB pit mining begins only six months before production, there will be a nine-month period with only underground development and no open pit activity.
According to the DFS, this could have caused significant costs due to equipment standby or remobilisation. The strategy adopted is for the bulk earthworks contractor to excavate the GBE pit, provided they have mining experience.
The plant to treat ore has been designed by DRA, utilising conventional CIL technology with upfront gravity recovery. It has a 4.5 Mtpa capacity (vs 5.5 Mtpa in the PFS) and is expected to achieve a LOM average recovery of 92.8%.
The crushing plant will have separate circuits for fresh and weathered ore, while the SABC grinding circuit will comprise a SAG mill, pebble crusher and ball mill.
Financing the project
With the DFS now complete, Predictive’s focus in the coming months will increasingly be on the financing of the project and on execution readiness activities. These activities will include the creation of an integrated project management team, preparation of a detailed project management plan, engagement with key engineering consultants and the commencement of front-end engineering design.
In respect of permitting, a major milestone was passed in January this year when Guinea’s Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development (MEDD) approved the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) and issued the Environmental Compliance Certificate (ECC) for the project.
With the ECC awarded, Predictive has been able to submit its application for an Exploitation Permit, which is the only major permit required before construction of the mine can start. As of this writing, Predictive was in the final stage of the Exploitation Permit review process with the Government of Guinea.
As regards financing, Predictive has a strong track record in raising equity capital, having secured approximately A$160 million since 2023 to advance the project. The company is also backed by a robust shareholder base, including large institutional investors and strategic mining groups, many of whom have a history of funding successful gold developments.
Shareholders include Perseus Mining, a major player in West African gold mining, with a 17.8% stake, the Lundin Family with 6.5% and Zijin Mining Group with 3.5%. The Lundin Family and Zijin are the primary backers of Montage Mining, which is currently developing the Koné gold mine in Côte d’Ivoire.
Commenting on the financing, Pardey says that it will probably be a combination of debt, equity and possibly some streaming. “The whole way of financing mines has certainly become a lot more dynamic than it used to be,” he says. “There are all sorts of innovations now.”
Finally, what is the scope for Bankan to grow? According to Pardey, the project has considerable exploration upside. “Our permits cover a 35 km long gold structural corridor. In the Argo area, about 15–20 km north, we already have a 153 koz maiden resource,” he says.
“If you look at the Siguiri gold mine, just up the road, it has a reserve of 2.2 Moz, and it’s been operating for 30 years. We believe Bankan can have similar longevity, contributing to Guinea’s economy for many years to come.”